May 18: Human Nature and the Statistical Probability of Losing
I keep getting spam from online casinos so I thought I would contribute to
the discussion of their value to the community.
The only good excuse I have heard for playing the lottery or gambling in general
goes something like "My life is a dreary failure so at least with lotto
tickets I can have a little entertainment."
It probably never occurred to these people that this very attitude may be
the cause of their failure up to the present moment? It is like some people's
plan is not working out and they know it so they throw up a hail-mary in desperation
hoping maybe they will win and all their troubles will be solved.
It is this mustard seed of hope that brings them some momentary enjoyment.
But what is the hope in? Hope is trust in something that can change your
situation. The statistical probability of losing is so high, people do not even
try to comprehend it. When I tell people that the probability of winning many
large lotteries is like 1 in every 400 people who gets struck by lightning.
They look at me like; "don't be absurd."
I think American culture breeds an attitude that anybody can succeed and
that this applies to games of small chance. It must be an inherent belief in
the underdog. Whatever it is, it has brought a few people great wealth for a
moment and financial ruin to many many more.
What do I mean for a moment? A study was done to determine the happiness of
lottery winners and people who become quadriplegics after one year. The quadriplegics
won. One reason for this is that since many lottery winners did not know how to
manage their money before they won, it did not remain with them long after they
won.
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